{"id":703,"date":"2025-08-01T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T01:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/18.167.19.3\/?p=703"},"modified":"2025-08-02T12:02:32","modified_gmt":"2025-08-02T04:02:32","slug":"hbm-market-faces-oversupply-and-price-decline-risks-by-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.timeswin.com.hk\/?p=703","title":{"rendered":"HBM Market Faces Oversupply and Price Decline Risks by 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Key pressures emerge from accelerated capacity expansion, technological transitions, and shifting client dynamics<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>

I. Core Drivers of Price Erosion<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>

\u25cf Supply Surge: Major players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are aggressively expanding production capacity. Goldman Sachs predicts a surge in HBM production capacity by 2026, which may lead to the first oversupply in years and double-digit price drops.<\/p>

\u25cf Buyer\u2019s Market Formation: With Samsung and Micron obtaining NVIDIA’s certification, clients have stronger bargaining power. Samsung may initiate price wars to seize market share, and even NVIDIA can use Micron’s capacity as a bargaining chip.<\/p>

\u25cf Demand Growth Slowdown: NVIDIA’s next-gen Rubin GPUs have flat HBM requirements, failing to drive incremental demand. Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2026 HBM growth forecast from 45% to 25% and the total addressable market from $51B to $45B.<\/p>

II. Market Divergence on Price Trajectory<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>

\u25cf Bear Case (Goldman Sachs): It is believed that structural oversupply will occur by 2026, with HBM bit supply growth outpacing demand, making average selling price (ASP) declines inevitable. SK Hynix, which relies 80-90% of its revenue on NVIDIA, is vulnerable to pricing changes.<\/p>

\u25cf Cautious Optimism (TrendForce, UBS): TrendForce thinks that technical premiums can offset price declines, as HBM4 with a 40% premium may support the overall ASP. UBS points out that growing HBM demand from Google\/AWS’s custom chips will drive market growth, forecasting an 18.5% bit-price growth and a $32.7B market by 2026.<\/p>

III. SK Hynix\u2019s Challenges<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>

\u25cf Market Share and Stock Pressure: Goldman Sachs’ downgrade caused a 9% drop in its stock price. Samsung’s 20% output growth and Micron’s expansion may erode SK Hynix’s current ~50% market dominance.<\/p>

\u25cf Geopolitical and New Competitor Risks: China’s CXMT is narrowing the technical gap to 3-4 years and plans to produce HBM3 by late 2026, which may impact SK Hynix’s position in the Chinese market.<\/p>

IV. Key Variables Affecting the Market<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>

\u25cf HBM4 as a Game-Changer: The 2026 launch of HBM4 with a 2048-bit interface and 16-Hi stacking will be more expensive but higher-performing. SK Hynix’s ability to maintain yield and delivery advantages will determine its premium pricing, while Samsung may lower prices if it lags behind.<\/p>

\u25cf ASICs as a New Battleground: Amazon\/Google’s custom AI chips are driving 30% annual growth in ASICs, which will diversify HBM demand beyond GPUs (currently accounting for 10% of the share).<\/p>

Investor Takeaways<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>

\u25cf In the near term, pay attention to the volatility of SK Hynix’s earnings.<\/p>

\u25cf In the long term, track HBM4 yields and ASIC order allocation. Unexpected surges in AI demand or production bottlenecks may reverse oversupply projections.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Key pressures emerge from accelerated capacity expansion, technological transitions, and shifting client dynamics<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":699,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.timeswin.com.hk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/703","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.timeswin.com.hk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.timeswin.com.hk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.timeswin.com.hk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.timeswin.com.hk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=703"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.timeswin.com.hk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/703\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":704,"href":"http:\/\/www.timeswin.com.hk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/703\/revisions\/704"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.timeswin.com.hk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/699"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.timeswin.com.hk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.timeswin.com.hk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=703"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.timeswin.com.hk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}